The People Bomb
Introduction.
Our world is rapidly changing. We are growing at rates previously unseen in human history. The American model seems to be the model of choice for countries that are developing, and the impact of one American on the environment is far more devastating than that of an individual from any developing nation. From the beginning of time, the world population grew slowly, until reaching 1 billion in the year 1800. By 1930, the world’s population had doubled, making it 2 billion. In the last 70 years, we have tripled our population, reaching 6 billion.
Audience.
This lesson is designed for high school geography, history, or economics students. It could easily be modified for students of biology or mathematics.
Previous Knowledge Needed.
Familiarity with Internet searching. Ability to calculate with percents and to read and construct graphs.
Objectives.
To learn about factors which influence birth rates.
To predict the world’s future population based on current growth rates.
To discuss changes in life-style necessary for larger populations.
To suggest and discuss solutions to the dilemmas posed by rapid population growth.
Materials.
Internet access, word processor.
Procedure.
Students should access the site http://www.popexpo.net and use this website to complete questions #1-12 on the Activity Sheet. They should find additional information at other Internet sites about the impact of a growing population on the global environment. They can take notes summarizing this information and then share what they have found in class. After students have discussed their findings, they should write a paper addressing various issues regarding rapid population growth.
Evaluation.
Use points on the Activity Sheet. A scoring rubric for the assigned paper should be based on the students’ thoroughness and responsiveness to the issues discussed. The paper should demonstrate that the student has reflected thoughtfully on the factors that affect population growth, the consequences of a growing population, and the development of a plan to reduce population growth.
Extensions.
Students may study population growth in more depth for just a single country.
Teacher Notes.
!!!! Warning !!!! The Web sites given in this lesson may have changed! Before using this lesson with your students, be sure to check if the sites are still working or if you must find another site. Sometimes the sites still have the relevant data but you may need to change the directions to access the data.
To calculate future population assuming a constant rate of population growth, use the formula Pk = P(1+r)k where r is the growth rate per year and k is the number of years from the present. For example, if the present population P were 1000 and the growth rate r = 5% = .05, then the total population 3 years from now (k = 3) would be Pk = P3 = 1000 X 1.053 = 1000 X 1.05 X 1.05 X 1.05 = 1158.
Wisconsin’s Model Academic Standards Addressed.
Social Studies:
A12.1. Use various types of atlases and appropriate vocabulary to describe the physical attributes of a place or region, employing such concepts as climate, plate tectonics, volcanism, and landforms, and to describe the human attributes, employing such concepts as demographics, birth and death rates, doubling time, emigration, and immigration.
A12.4. Analyze the short-term and long-term effects that major changes in population in various parts of the world have had or might have on the environment.
A12.5. Use a variety of geographic information and resources to analyze and illustrate the ways in which the unequal global distribution of natural resources influences trade and shapes economic patterns.
A12.7. Collect relevant data to analyze the distribution of products among global markets and the movement of people among regions of the world.
A12.10. Analyze the effect of cultural ethics and values in various parts of the world on scientific and technological development.
A12.11. Describe scientific and technological development in various regions of the world and analyze the ways in which development affects environment and culture.
B12.9. Select significant changes caused by technology, industrialization, urbanization, and population growth, and analyze the effects of these changes in the United States and the world.
C12.8 Locate, organize, analyze, and use information from various sources to understand an issue of public concern, take a position, and communicate the position.
D12.1. Explain how decisions about spending and production made by households, businesses, and governments determine the nation’s levels of income, employment and prices.
E12.14. Use the research procedures and skills of the behavioral sciences (such as gathering, organizing, and interpreting data from several sources) to develop an informed position on an issue.
Science:
A12.2. Show how conflicting assumptions about science themes lead to different opinions and decisions about evolution, health, population, longevity, education, and use of resources, and show how these opinions and decisions have diverse effects on an individual, a community, and a country, both now and in the future.
A12.5. Show how the ideas and themes of science can be used to make real-life decisions about careers, work places, life-styles, and use of resources.
B12.3. Relate the major themes of science to human progress in understanding science and the world.
C12.7. Evaluate articles and reports in the popular press, in scientific journals, on television, and on the Internet, using criteria related to accuracy, degree of error, sampling, treatment of data, and other standards of experimental design.
E12.4. Analyze the benefits, costs, and limitations of past, present, and projected use of resources and technology and explain the consequences to the environment.
H12.1. Using the science themes and knowledge of the earth and space, life and environmental, and physical sciences, analyze the costs, risks, benefits and consequences of a proposal concerning resource management in the community and determine the potential impact of the proposal on life in the community and the region.
H12.5. Investigate how current plans or proposals concerning resource management, scientific knowledge, or technological development will have an impact on the environment, ecology, and quality of life in a community or region.
Mathematics:
A12.3. Analyze non-routine problems and arrive at solutions by various means, including models and simulations, often starting with provisional conjectures and progressing, directly or indirectly, to a solution, justification, or counter-example.
B12.5. Create and critically evaluate numerical arguments presented in a variety of classroom and real-world situations (e.g., political, economic, scientific, social).
E12.1 Work with data in the context of real-world situations by formulating hypotheses that lead to collection and analysis of one- and two-variable data, using technology to generate displays, summary statistics and presentations.
E12.2. Organize and display data from statistical investigations using frequency distributions, percentiles, quartiles, deciles, line of best fit or matrices.
Activity Sheets.
The People Bomb Activity Sheet
Access the website http://www.popexpo.net, click on the "In English" link and then enter into the "6 Billion Human Beings" Exhibit.
1. How many people were on the earth when you were born? __________
How many people were on the earth when your parents were born? __________
How many people were on the earth when your grandparents were born? __________
2. Assume the population growth rate continues at the current 2% per year.
(To calculate future population assuming a constant rate of population growth, use the formula Pk = P(1+r)k where r is the growth rate per year and k is the number of years from the present. For example, if the present population P were 1000 and the growth rate r = 5% = .05, then the total population 3 years from now (k = 3) would be Pk = P3 = 1000 X 1.053 = 1000 X 1.05 X 1.05 X 1.05 = 1158.)
About how many people will be on the earth when your children are born? __________
About how many people will be on the earth when your grandchildren are born? __________
About how many people will be on the earth when your great-grandchildren are born? __________
3. Make a graph showing the world’s population for the six years you used above. Be sure to show the years and population on your graph.
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4. How many babies could a woman possibly have in a lifetime?
5. If a woman from North America gets married at age 28, how many children is she likely to have?
6. In which region of the world do women get married at the lowest age?
7. By how many children could a couple’s birth potential be reduced if the woman were to breast-feed her baby for nine months.
8. How many people die every day? What is the most common cause of death?
9. What percent of children your age are still alive in the six areas of the world given in this website?
10. What percentage of the world’s population is younger than your today? _________
What percentage of the world’s population will be younger than you in 50 years? __________
11. How might lifestyles change in the next century as the population continues to grow?
12. Find additional information about population growth at the following websites. Record information you find below.
Zero Population Growth, http://www.zpg.org
The United Nations, http://www.un.org
Negative population Growth Inc., http://www.ngp.org
Another site you found:
13. Using the information you gathered above and other information you learned in your class, write a paper addressing the following issues.
1. What factors have contributed to the high population growth in this century?
2. What have been the effects of high population growth on the global environment?
3. How will life-styles change if population growth continues at a high rate?
4. What can be done to reduce population growth?
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The People Bomb Activity Sheet (Answer Key)
Access the website http://www.popexpo.net, click on the "In English" link and then enter into the "6 Billion Human Beings" Exhibit.
1. How many people were on the earth when you were born?
For a 15-year-old (or 15 years ago, in 1985) 4,604,795,000
How many people were on the earth when your parents were born?
40 years ago (in 1960): 2,853,318,000 people
How many people were on the earth when your grandparents were born?
65 years ago (in 1935): 2,094,308,000 people
2. Assume the population growth rate continues at the current 2% per year.
(To calculate future population assuming a constant rate of population growth, use the formula Pk = P(1+r)k where r is the growth rate per year and k is the number of years from the present. For example, if the present population P were 1000 and the growth rate r = 5% = .05, then the total population 3 years from now (k = 3) would be Pk = P3 = 1000 X 1.053 = 1000 X 1.05 X 1.05 X 1.05 = 1158.)
How many people will be on the earth when your children are born?
10 years from now: compute 6,000,000,000 X (1.02)10 = 7,313,966,000
How many people will be on the earth when your grandchildren are born?
35 years from now: compute 6,000,000,000 X (1.02)35 = 11,999,337,000
How many people will be on the earth when your great-grandchildren are born?
60 years from now: compute 6,000,000,000 X (1.02)60 = 19,686,184,000
3. Make a graph showing the world’s population for the six years you used above.
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4. How many babies could a woman possibly have in a lifetime?
Potentially 15.
5. If a woman from North America gets married at age 28, how many children is she likely to have?
Reduce the potential number by 9. She can potentially have 6.
6. In which region of the world do women get married at the lowest age?
Africa, age 19. Other areas of the world, ages 21-23.
7. By how many children could a couple’s birth potential be reduced if the woman were to breast-feed her baby for nine months.
By up to 6 children depending on when the woman married and when she became sterile.
8. How many people die every day? What is the most common cause of death?
2 people die every minute. So every day 2 X 60 X 60 X 24 = 172,800 people die.
The most common cause of death in the world is by infection.
9. What percent of children your age are still alive in the six areas of the world given in this website?
North America: 97%, Latin America: 90%, Africa: 75%, Europe: 96%, Asia, 87%, Oceania: 96%
10. What percentage of the world’s population is younger than your today? 31%
What percentage of the world’s population will be younger than you in 50 years? 86%
11. How might lifestyles change in the next century as the population continues to grow?
Fewer natural resources.
Larger cities.
Potential starvation.
More older people.
More disease potential.